CITY traders will be winners from the EU referendum whatever the result, a financial services expert has said.
It is believed some hedge fund managers have commissioned exit polls so they can use the data to trade on the currency markets and in shares before the result is announced.
The pound hit its highest level of the year late on Wednesday, thought to have been boosted by opinion polls and bookmakers’ odds indicating a slight lead for the ‘remain’ camp.
Kevin Forbes, chairman of the Hampshire and Dorset region of the Personal Finance Society, said hedge funds would have invested to cover either outcome.
Mr Forbes, partner in Poole based Strategic Solutions, said whatever the result, the stock market would see heavy trading on Friday – with traders doing well out of the fees.
“There will be massive volumes, which means a massive increase in traders’ fees and dealers’ fees – if the technology of the market place holds out,” he said.
“It’s already clear that Friday is going to be an extremely busy day. Whether it goes up or down, traders get paid for doing the trading. Quarter three of 2016 will see a big bonus for most of the city lads.”
Broadcasters have not commissioned exit polls as they do at general elections, because of the difficulty of accurately polling a unique event like the referendum.
Although it is illegal to publish the results of an exit poll before voting finishes, a number of hedge funds are believed to have commissioned polls at around £500,000 at a time for their own use today.
Mr Forbes said: “I’m sure they are doing that. They’ve got money dropping out of their pockets to spend on anything they can get an extra edge on.”
But he said the narrowness of the pre-referendum opinion polls could make it unwise to bet heavily on the basis of exit polls.
“Personally, I wouldn’t put a lot of money down based on an exit poll,” he said.
He said private investors would be better off taking a longer-term view rather than reacting suddenly to the referendum results on Friday.
Gary Neild, managing director of Blue Sky Financial Planning in Poole, said: “We have communicated with our clients and effectively have positioned our strategies to accommodate either outcome.
“It is important to understand that the key determinant of performance is choosing the right assets in which to invest at the right time. Investing in the wrong assets could prove costly, particularly when there is a predetermined event like the referendum.”
It has been reported that investment banks such as JP Morgan will have staff working throughout the night as currency dealers react to the results from around the UK.
However, JP Morgan in Bournemouth is not thought to have asked staff to work overnight. It is thought there will be little change to the working arrangements at Barclays House in Poole, where some staff already work at night to support international transactions.
A Barclays spokesperson said: “We have robust plans in place in preparation for this week's vote.”
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