Covid: BCP's Covid 'hotspot' risk to reduce after lockdown

A map by Imperial College London suggests the BCP area currently has a 65 per cent chance of recording more than 100 cases per week.

• BCP and Dorset placed in Tier 2 coronavirus restrictions once lockdown ends

This will reduce to 22 per cent by November 30 and then fall further still to 10 per cent by December 13. 

The map on November 27

The chance of BCP recording more than 50 cases per week will drop from 99 per cent to 50 per cent during the same period. 

• “Tier two arrangements are an absolute disaster, the worst of all worlds"

Yesterday it was announced that the whole of Dorset would be moved into Tier 2 measures after December 2 when the latest national lockdown ends. 

The map by December 13

According to the data, by November 28 the BCP area's probability of having an R rate greater than one is 0 per cent.

This graph shows the change in reproduction number 

Meanwhile, the wider Dorset area has just a 0 per cent chance of recording more than 100 cases per a week post-lockdown up until December 13.

The probability of Dorset recording more than 50 cases per week will fall from 51 per cent to 27 per cent by November 29. After this, it will fall to 15 per cent up until the current predictions end. 

• Dorset coronavirus rate falls to among very lowest in country

Dorset has a three per cent chance of recording an R rate greater than one. 

The map allows users to filter areas and see where is predicted to record 50, 100, 200, 300 and 500 cases per week.

Meanwhile, the New Forest currently has a 29 per cent chance of recording 100 cases per week which will fall to 22 per cent after lockdown.

It has a 78 per cent chance of confirming more than 50 cases per week which will fall to 64 per cent by mid-December. 

• Why the government says it has put all of Dorset in Tier 2 Covid restrictions

The Imperial College model is based on reported cases and weekly reported deaths, combined with mathematical modelling, which results in the probability of an area becoming a hotspot in the following weeks.

This graph shows the predicted fall in weekly cases in the BCP area

• What is Tier 2? Here are all the restrictions in place from Dec 2

Imperial College says: “For past weeks we compare the reported cases to the threshold. For future weeks, we give probabilities based on our model, which assumes a situation in which no change in interventions (e.g. local lockdowns) occur.

“ To define weeks we use specimen dates, ie the day on which tests are taken. We consider an area to have increasing new infections if our model estimates that the reproduction number R is greater than 1 with probability of at least 90%.”

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It continues: “Likely increasing” indicates a probability between 75% and 90%. Decreasing and likely decreasing are defined analogously, but consider R less than 1.”