Imperial College Map predicts whether Dorset will become Covid-19 hotspot in early March

The data has been produced by the Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, in conjunction with its mathematics department.

It predicts the probability of local authorities recording at least 100 cases per 100,000 people over the coming weeks and becoming a 'hotspot' on its map.

The website predicts a one per cent chance of Dorset Council area having this amount by the week ending Saturday, March 13 – the week measures on reopening of schools and social mixing are eased.

This is based on reported cases and weekly reported deaths, combined with mathematical modelling, which results in the probability of an area becoming a hotspot in the following weeks.

Dorset has a very low chance of seeing more than 50 coronavirus cases in early March. Picture: Imperial College London

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Currently, it predicts a zero per cent chance of the local authority having 100 cases per 100,000 people by the week ending Saturday, March 6.

The neighbouring Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council area meanwhile has a six per cent chance of becoming a coronavirus hotspot on Saturday, March 13. However, this is a decrease from the nine per cent likelihood reported at the end of the week dating Saturday, March 6.

The statistics suggest that the lockdown has worked in reducing the spread of coronavirus across the county.

This reduction could also be due to how the Dorset Council area is predominately rural with its approximate 375,000 population spread across multiple towns, parishes and villages while BCP Council area is more developed and has a higher population.

In the week ending Saturday, March 13, there is an 11 per cent probability of more than 50 cases in the Dorset Council area while there is a 34 per cent chance in the BCP Council area.

Dorset remains at low risk of becoming a coronavirus hotspot while neighbouring Wiltshire has a one per cent chance, South Somerset has a zero per cent chance while there is a zero per cent chance in East Devon.

Coronavirus cases are falling across Dorset. Picture: Public Health Dorset

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According to Public Health England’s interactive coronavirus map, Dorset Council area has reported 309 cases in the seven days leading up to Friday, February 19 – a fall of 15.8 per cent on the previous week.

The rolling rate for Dorset Council as a whole, is 81.6 cases per 100,000 people - which is below the national average.

A number of neighbourhoods have also recently reported low cases of coronavirus while the Bridport South and West Bay area has not reported a coronavirus cluster during the course of the pandemic.

Imperial College states that its projections for hotspots assume no change in interventions and human behaviour has been made since a week before the last observed data. The data was last updated on Wednesday, February 24.

Imperial College also lists a number of limitations to its predictions.

It explains: "Predictions on this page assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in the local area beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

"An increase in cases in an area can be due to an increase in testing. The model currently does not account for this.

"Each area (local authority) is treated independently apart from the overall Rt estimate for its region. Thus the epidemic in a region is neither affected by nor affects any other region. It also does not include importations from other countries.

"The population within an area is considered to be homogeneous - i.e. all individuals are considered equally likely to be affected by the disease progression."