Sudden Stratospheric Warming is a weather phenomenon that you might not have heard of before, but it could impact the BCP area and much of the UK fairly soon.
Extreme cold and winter snow events in recent years have been connected to the surface effects of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs), with the most recent one having been the 'Beast from the East' in 2018.
According to a Met Office blog posted on Tuesday (February 7) "a major SSW is now likely to take place" this year.
But what exactly is Sudden Stratospheric Warming?
What is Sudden Stratospheric Warming?
Bournemouth & Poole Weather said: “SSW is a rapid warming of the upper atmosphere, this can then lead to a slowing and reversing of the normal westerly winds in the polar vortex - all sounds very complex but what can it mean for us, on occasions this can bring very cold easterly winds to Northern Europe and here in the UK.
"The most recent example of this was the ‘Beast from the East’ back in late Feb 2018 when we had our last proper snow event.
"One of the challenges though is even when a SSW occurs the downstream effects don’t always result in the same outcome and can take several weeks to propagate outwards and impact us.
The latest forecasts are showing that a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is likely to take place. This can lead to cold, dry weather coming into the north of Europe and UK.
— Met Office (@metoffice) February 7, 2023
Read the full story in our latest blog post.
"So while an SSW is ongoing now there’s absolutely no certainty our weather will turn much cold towards the final week of the month.”
When could a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event happen this year?
On whether a Sudden Stratospheric Warming would bring warm or cold weather, Dorset Snow said: “Honestly it can mean either, but the risk of extreme weather increases. Generally favours a colder pattern."
When asked when it could occur they added: "We wouldn’t see these effects until early March.”
Prof Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Forecasting at the Met Office, also said: “There is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring.
"Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”
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