BOURNEMOUTH could vote in its first ever Labour MP next month, according to YouGov’s first MRP projection for the general election.
While Labour looks to secure a landslide victory nationally, this side of Dorset could mostly be keeping to its current Conservative MPs, the poll suggests.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Tory safe seat Christchurch is expected to re-elect its Conservative MP Sir Christopher Chope.
And Poole’s seat could be held by Conservative Sir Robert Syms, projected to have 35 per cent of the vote versus Labour candidate Neil Duncan-Jordan's 34 per cent.
Bournemouth has historically always voted for a Conservative Member of Parliament but when results come through in the early hours of July 5, this could change.
Both Labour candidates for Bournemouth West and East – held by Tories Sir Conor Burns and Tobias Ellwood, respectively – are projected to lose to Jessica Toale and Tom Hayes.
In the west, Ms Toale could get 42 per cent of the vote versus Sir Conor’s predicted 29 per cent and in the east, Mr Hayes could get 46 per cent against Mr Ellwood’s 30 per cent.
Former minister Sir Conor has represented Bournemouth West since 2010 and Mr Ellwood has held his seat in Bournemouth East since 2005.
Meanwhile, in Mid Dorset and North Poole, Michael Tomlinson could once again beat Lib Dem Vikki Slade once again, according to the YouGov poll.
And in North Dorset, Simon Hoare is also expected to be re-elected, predicted to have 37 per cent of the vote against the Lib Dem’s 31 per cent.
Neil Duncan-Jordan, Labour’s candidate in Poole said: “I’m not surprised by the poll because it reinforces what we’re finding on the doorstep.
"The Conservatives are losing support from their traditional base and if you want to see a change, then it has to be Labour.
"A vote for any other party is really a vote for the Conservatives. I’m hoping people will see the power of voting tactically.”
Nationally, the data, collected from more than 58,000 people, will make grim reading for prime minister Rishi Sunak as it shows Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives since March despite a recent policy blitz by the ruling party.
Sir Keir is projected to become prime minister next month with his party clocking up more gains than at any election since 1945, potentially leaving the Tories with their lowest number of MPs since 2001.
Labour looks set to win as many as 422 seats, with the Tories reduced to just 140, according to YouGov analysis.
The poll shows Conservatives losing 32 of its seats across the South West region.
Labour would be the biggest winner in the region, increasing its number of seats from seven to 24, and becoming the largest party in the South West.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary in the North East Somerset and Hanham, would be among the casualties.
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