Last poll predicts Dorset will elect just one Tory MP

Both Bournemouth constituencies – West and East – are predicted to go Labour’s way for the first time ever after voters go to polls tomorrow. 

Poole, too, could elect a Labour MP, according to Survation’s multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model which uses data from more than 30,000 respondents. 

Mid Dorset and North Poole is predicted to vote for the Lib Dems as is North Dorset and West Dorset. 

Survation also predicts South Dorset could elect a Labour MP.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Christchurch – a historically safe Conservative seat – is predicted to keep its Tory MP, making it the only constituency in the county to stay blue. 

Nationally, the model’s implied vote share indicates that Labour will win around 42% of the vote, just under twenty percentage points ahead of the Conservative party on 23%. 

Could Chris Chope be the only Tory MP on Friday?

Bournemouth East

Estimated Vote Share: 

Lab: 39.3% 

Con: 23.3% 

Lib Dem: 5.5% 

Green: 11.4% 

Reform: 17.9% 

Other: 2.7% 

Bournemouth West 

Estimated Vote Share: 

Lab: 41.3% 

Con: 24.9% 

Lib Dem: 7.9% 

Green: 6.4% 

Reform: 17.5% 

Other: 2.0% 

Poole 

Estimated Vote Share: 

Lab: 31.0% 

Con: 27.9% 

Lib Dem: 18.7% 

Green: 3.9% 

Reform: 16.0% 

Other: 2.5% 

Christchurch 

Estimated Vote Share: 

Lab: 25.9% 

Con: 27.8% 

Lib Dem: 18.8% 

Green: 3.9% 

Reform: 20.1% 

Other: 3.6% 

Mid Dorset and North Poole 

Estimated Vote Share: 

Lab: 23.0% 

Con: 31.4% 

Lib Dem: 36.7% 

Green: 7.5% 

Reform: 0.0% 

Other: 1.4% 

North Dorset 

Estimated Vote Share: 

Lab: 23.1% 

Con: 28.6% 

Lib Dem: 31.4% 

Green: 4.6% 

Reform: 11.4% 

Other: 0.9% 

South Dorset 

Estimated Vote Share: 

Lab: 32.3% 

Con: 24.7% 

Lib Dem: 18.1% 

Green: 3.3% 

Reform: 20.3% 

Other: 1.4% 

West Dorset 

Estimated Vote Share: 

Lab: 18.8% 

Con: 26.2% 

Lib Dem: 50.6% 

Green: 3.0% 

Reform: 0.0% 

Other: 1.4%