AFC BOURNEMOUTH are not mathematically out of the European equation with three games to play in their season – but what needs to happen for a trip to the continent next season?
Heading into the final month of the Premier League season, Cherries sit in 10th with 48 points from 35 games.
The European picture was clarified further on Wednesday night, after Borussia Dortmund’s victory over Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League secured a fifth spot for Germany in Europe’s elite competition next season.
There was an outside chance of England being granted one of two ‘European Performance Spots’, dependent on Aston Villa’s run in the UEFA Europa Conference League, but Dortmund’s win has lifted the collective German co-efficient beyond their reach.
Italian clubs had already secured the other EPS, meaning that there can now only be four English sides in the Champions League next term.
This has a knock-on effect to qualification for Europe’s secondary and tertiary competitions, the Europa League and Europa Conference League respectively.
Now it is clear that there will be seven spots for the three competitions, with just one external factor to consider – the FA Cup final.
Liverpool, who have guaranteed at least a spot in the Europa League via their league position, were victors in the EFL Cup, which also secures qualification to the Europa Conference League.
However, as Liverpool have already qualified for a higher competition, sixth place in the Premier League will be handed the spot for the Conference League.
But thanks to the all-Manchester FA Cup final, it is likely that seventh will be enough for the Conference League.
Whilst FA Cup finalists Manchester City have already qualified for the Champions League, their opponents Manchester United are yet to qualify for a European competition via the league.
Currently sat in sixth, United have two shots at qualifying for the Europa League – either by winning the FA Cup, or by remaining in sixth come the end of May and losing at Wembley to City.
Either way, Conference League qualification would then go to the side in seventh.
Cherries can at best finish sixth – but that would require both Manchester United and Newcastle to drop a significant amount of points from their last four games, as well as West Ham and Chelsea losing most of their matches.
All five teams involved in the battle for the final two qualification berths face each other at some point – with Chelsea set to face both West Ham and Cherries before the end of the season.
Newcastle and Manchester United also face each other, limiting at least one side’s potential points total.
Title rivals Manchester City and Arsenal will also have an impact on the fight for Europe.
Cherries of course start May with a trip to the capital to face Arsenal, with the Gunners also set to face Manchester United.
West Ham end their campaign at home to reigning champions Manchester City.
The relegation scrap also spills into the race for Europe, with Chelsea set to visit Nottingham Forest and West Ham having to contend with Luton Town.
Two places below Cherries with a game in hand is Brighton, who are four points behind.
The Seagulls have to play three of the five sides directly involved in the race for Europe, but their current form means it is unlikely they will rise back up the table.
To have any chance of finishing sixth or seventh, Cherries pretty much have to win all of their remaining games.
From there it is a case of hoping for results elsewhere to go their way.
What is more likely, but still a tall ask, is matching – or bettering – their highest-ever finish in the Premier League.
Whilst Iraola’s charges have already surpassed the points haul earnt by Eddie Howe’s side in 2017, they are a position behind the 2016/17 cohort’s ninth-placed finish.
By winning all three of their remaining games, combined with the fact Chelsea also face West Ham, there is an opportunity for Cherries to at least leapfrog the Blues into fourth.
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